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2013, année des acquéreurs immobiliers ?

La dernière note de conjoncture des Notaires de France dresse une analyse du marché immobilier dans toute la France à la fin du 4e trimestre 2012 et dessine les perspectives d’évolution dans le neuf et l’ancien. 2013 pourrait révéler un rééquilibrage du marché.
2012 : une année de rupture de dynamique

L’année 2012 est marquée par une baisse significative du nombre de ventes de logements anciens. 709 000 transactions ont été enregistrées, 128 300 pour l’Ile de France et 580 700 pour la province. La baisse est de 12% sur un an. Seuls 5 départements ont une évolution positive : la Lozère, la Corrèze, la Côte d’Or, le Jura et la Haute Saône. En province, comme en Ile de France, c’est le 3ème trimestre qui a enregistré la baisse la plus importante, -21% sur un an. Au 4ème trimestre le recul sur un an s’atténue (-10%). Les prix sont globalement en recul en France sur l’ensemble de l’année : les prix des appartements ont diminués de 1,1% et les prix des maisons de -2,1%. Cette baisse des prix est plus sensible en Province (-1,6% sur un an pour les appartements et -2,3% pour les maisons) que dans la Région francilienne. Dans le neuf, les investisseurs ont boudé le dispositif d’investissement locatif « Scellier » (seconde version) moins avantageuse que la première.
Pour les investisseurs : attendre que le « duflot » se mette en place

La promotion immobilière doit désormais mettre en place des programmes immobiliers qui répondent à l’équilibre financier de la loi Duflot. Il faudra donc environ un an pour en voir les effets sur le marché. Dans l’intervalle, 2013 risque d’être une nouvelle année de récession pour l’immobilier neuf avec des conséquences néfastes sur l’emploi, d’autant que le plan annoncé par le Président de la République concerne peu l’investissement privé et ne l’impactera pas à court terme.
L’immobilier ancien conserve ses dispositifs classiques de défiscalisation : la loi Malraux, mais aussi le mécanisme du déficit foncier à hauteur de 10 700 euros et la possibilité de report pendant 10 ans. Cependant les investisseurs craignent un éventuel durcissement de l’encadrement des loyers. En outre, les espoirs de gain à court terme, qui ont pu nourrir des achats spéculatifs, se sont évanouis ; ils seraient de toute façon lourdement taxés.
Les accédants à la propriété : peut-être une année décisive pour l’achat

En 2012, les accédants étaient aussi frileux que les établissements de crédit. Un primo-accédant pouvait difficilement se constituer un apport financier suffisant et payer un loyer en même temps. Ces deux éléments peuvent expliquer le net recul du nombre d’octrois de crédits immobiliers en 2012. Aujourd’hui, on assiste à un assouplissement modéré de la part des banques et rien ne laisse attendre une remontée des taux à brève échéance, de sorte que la chute du volume des crédits immobiliers semble toucher à sa fin.
Sur le marché de l’ancien, le prêt à taux zéro n’existe plus et le recul des prix n’a été sensible que sur les marchés les moins tendus et les biens de moindre qualité. Ainsi, les constructions des années 1990- 2000 ont un attrait certain et subissent beaucoup moins la crise. Pour les biens plus anciens où des travaux de mises aux normes se révèleront nécessaires, les aides ou crédits d’impôt sont moins avantageux que les années passées et le taux de la TVA sur la rénovation va connaitre une nouvelle augmentation. La prime supplémentaire de 1 350 euros qui constitue l’une des mesures phares du plan de relance constituera-t-elle une compensation suffisante ?
Le marché du neuf subira également en 2013 une hausse du coût de la construction en raison de la règlementation thermique 2012 devenue obligatoire. Cette hausse semble a priori loin d’être compensée par l’économie financière en dépense d’énergie. Pour maintenir le niveau de la demande, il faudrait une baisse du prix des terrains, notamment pour les maisons individuelles dans les secteurs hors métropoles, ou une diminution de la marge au risque de fragiliser un peu plus le secteur. Du côté du financement, le prêt à taux zéro a subi une réduction de ses bénéficiaires potentiels en raison de son ciblage sur les revenus modestes. La faiblesse des taux des autres crédits, tant qu’elle se maintient, pourra partiellement compenser cet effet pour les autres accédants.
Vers un rééquilibrage du marché immobilier ?

La solvabilité des acquéreurs est toujours soutenue par des taux historiquement bas. Certains accédants ont un comportement attentiste. Cependant on constate aussi un retrait ou un report de mise en vente de leur bien par les vendeurs dans l’espoir d’un assouplissement du régime d’imposition des plus-values immobilières. Au cours des dernières années, la fiscalité des plus- values immobilières a manqué de visibilité avec des réformes incessantes. En particulier, les réformes intervenues au cours des deux dernières années contribuent au fléchissement en volume des ventes.
Le comportement attentiste des vendeurs et des acquéreurs se justifie aussi par l’état général de l’économie et ses perspectives à court terme. Cependant les taux d’intérêt ne resteront pas longtemps aussi bas. Les vendeurs doivent ajuster leurs prix à la solvabilité des acquéreurs. Cet ajustement semble s’être enclenché si l’on en croit les données issues de l’exploitation des avant-contrats, qui anticipent le marché d’environ 3 mois : en province, la baisse cumulée entre mai, le point le plus haut, et décembre 2012 dépasserait 7%. A Paris intra-muros, l’indice des prix de vente a culminé en août 2012 ; d’après les avant-contrats, il pourrait reculer de 4,5% entre août 2012 et mai 2013.

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