La CAPEB fait état d’un repli de -1,5% de l’artisanat du bâtiment, par rapport au 4e trimestre 2012 marqué par un recul de -3,5% dans le segment du neuf et -0,5% dans celui de l’entretien-amélioration. 2013 aura été marquée par une baisse continue de l’activité sur les quatre trimestres, avec un recul de 3% de l’activité en volume.
Selon les estimations de la CAPEB, l’année 2014 resterait marquée par un recul mais moins important qu’en 2013, estimé, à ce jour dans l’artisanat du bâtiment, à -1,5%. L’activité du neuf pourrait bénéficier des premiers effets du dispositif d’investissement locatif Duflot, mais risque de pâtir de la période pré-électorale. Si le taux de TVA réduit à 5,5 % devrait quant à lui profiter aux travaux de performance énergétique, les autres travaux de rénovation seront ralentis par le relèvement de la TVA à 10%. D’une manière générale, le comportement des ménages est difficile à anticiper car le contexte économique est marqué par la hausse du chômage, par une faible croissance du PIB (inférieure à 1 %) et par une augmentation des taux de TVA à 10 et 20 % et de 7 à 10 % dans l’existant (hors rénovation énergétique).
Après une année 2013 particulièrement éprouvante, des perspectives peu encourageantes
L’activité en construction neuve a été très impactée sur les douze derniers mois, avec un net repli de 6% du nombre de logements neufs mis en chantier entre décembre 2012 et novembre 2013. L’analyse des permis de construire accordés aux logements neufs, qui représentent les futures mises en chantier, laisse présager une situation plus sombre : la tendance est toujours à la baisse avec un repli de 15,7% à 433 282 unités sur douze mois cumulés (entre décembre 2012 et novembre 2013 comparé à la même période un an plus tôt).
Le marché de la rénovation ne joue pas véritablement son rôle d’amortisseur de crise. En 2013, il a subi une perte d’activité de -1,5 % malgré une progression des travaux d’amélioration de performances énergétiques du logement de +0,5 % sur la période. Cette tendance devrait se confirmer en 2014 où l’activité de rénovation connaîtra plusieurs freins : la croissance du taux de TVA réduit en 2013, le recul du nombre de transactions immobilières dans l’ancien et le manque de confiance des ménages. Tendance qui ne pourrait pas être contrebalancée par la TVA à taux minoré sur le segment de la rénovation énergétique.
L’ensemble des métiers est concerné par cette baisse d’activité et affiche un recul compris entre -0,5 % et -2,5 %. Concernant les carnets de commandes, ils restent inquiétants et ne représentent plus que 74 jours de travail (contre 87 en avril 2013). Les plans de charge sont encore orientés à la baisse, particulièrement pour l’entretien rénovation. Enfin, les besoins de trésorerie demeurent très importants. En effet, le nombre d’entreprises déclarant un besoin de trésorerie supérieur à 10 000» est passé de 54 % au 3e trimestre 2013 à 88 % au 4e trimestre 2013.
Patrick Liébus, Président de la CAPEB, commente : « Concernant le marché de la rénovation énergétique, qui sera le seul boosté par une TVA plus réduite, je suis plus confiant. En effet, nos indicateurs « maison » font valoir une augmentation de 300 ECO Artisans par mois depuis novembre dernier, ce qui illustre bien la mobilisation forte de nos entreprises. A ce jour, le Réseau dénombre 3 500 ECO Artisans labellisés RGE (Reconnu Garant de l’Environnement par l’ADEME) »
Après une forte perte d’emplois en 2013, un ralentissement de la dégradation en 2014 ?
Conséquence directe de la baisse d’activité, près de 30 000 emplois ont été détruits dans la construction entre le 3e trimestre 2012 et le 3e trimestre 2013. L’artisanat du bâtiment enregistrerait à lui seul 15 000 emplois perdus sur 2013. Par ailleurs et d’une manière générale, les défaillances d’entreprises ont progressé de 5 % sur la même période soit une augmentation de près de 15 000 défaillances. Du côté des cessations d’entreprises, on note une augmentation de 4 % soit près de 36 0000 cessations. Et pour 2014 ? Une légère hausse de l’intérim (+4,1%) enregistrée au 3e trimestre par rapport au même trimestre de l’année précédente permet cependant d’envisager un recul moindre de l’activité dans les prochains mois, comme l’atteste le nombre d’entreprises envisageant d’embaucher au premier semestre 2014, qui a augmenté et qui représente 6% des entreprises artisanales (contre 4% au semestre précédent).
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