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Le marché de l’immobilier ancien est en apnée

Selon une étude de la FNAIM, l’attentisme a conditionné le marché immobilier ancien au 3ème trimestre 2012. Les nombreuses annonces fiscales, pas toujours très clairement définies pour certaines ont une influence sur les tendances du marché de l’immobilier. D’un point de vue statistique, les prix ont baissé en moyenne de 0,6 % au troisième trimestre 2012 dans le continuum de la tendance observée depuis le début de l’année. Une attitude nouvelle est observée chez les vendeurs qui s’inquiètent des fluctuations de la fiscalité immobilière. Ils doivent composer avec un marché en apnée, car les acheteurs retiennent leur souffle. Eux aussi attendent d’y voir plus clair dans les annonces du Gouvernement. Par ailleurs le discours alarmiste sur la frilosité supposée des banques finit par décourager des demandes de prêt. Selon Jean-François Buet, président élu de la FNAIM prévient « si l’absence de visibilité se prolonge, ce ne sont pas 5 000 emplois qui risquent d’être perdus, mais plutôt 10 000 ».

Les prix ont baissé de 0,6% au troisième trimestre par rapport aux trois mois précédents. Toutefois, ce chiffre cache une certaine disparité entre la province (-0,4%) et la région parisienne (-1,1%). Ils devraient se maintenir au même niveau que celui qu’ils avaient atteint au deuxième trimestre 2007, avant que n’éclate la crise financière. Le nombre de transactions devrait être inférieur à 700 000, alors qu’il avait atteint les 808 000 en 2011. La baisse est de 15% et ramène l’activité au niveau de 2008.

La méfiance des ménages à l’égard de la conjoncture immobilière est persistante. Le moral ne parvient pas à se relever de son point bas observé l’an dernier. Seuls 20% des Français considèrent que la conjoncture est favorable à l’achat (deux fois moins que fin 2011). Parallèlement, 14% seulement, estiment que la conjoncture est favorable à la vente (contre 33% en juin 2011). La désaffection porte sur l’investissement locatif et sur l’achat de résidences secondaires. Toutefois, un gros tiers (35%) estime toujours que le moment est bon pour accéder à la primo accession (mais ils étaient près de 50% début 2011). Si les particuliers jugent les taux attractifs, ils n’en perçoivent pas les bienfaits au niveau de l’obtention des prêts. Près de la moitié des personnes interrogées (44%) tablent sur une stabilité des prix au cours des six prochains mois. Comme l’an dernier, 41% jugent que les opportunités sont plus nombreuses aujourd’hui qu’hier et que les conditions sont réunies pour réaliser de bonnes affaires immobilières. L’absence de pression à la hausse accroît le pouvoir de négociation des acheteurs. Pour autant, les vendeurs ne sont pas perdants, car les prix sont proches du meilleur niveau atteint au cours des dix dernières années (c’était en 2007). Les taux d’intérêt attractifs permettent de financer à bon prix des opérations. La durée plus courte des remboursements réduit les coûts de financement, puisque la charge des intérêts est moindre. Il faut cependant trouver des solutions pour les primo-accédants, car ce sont eux qui disposent des ressources les plus faibles pour réaliser leurs projets. Une restauration du prêt à taux zéro permettrait d’apporter une réponse à leur épargne insuffisante ou inexistante.

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